Markets continue a time-based, rotational correction with low volatility.
Where have I seen this before? It’s the same kind of trading we’ve seen for the entire year.
As a bit of context, this is not normal… at least not in the statistical sense. The VIX is at all time lows, we’ve seen single digit actual volatility all year without any kind of expansion. I’ve not seen a market like this since 2006.
We’re coming into the tail end of earnings season, and summer doldrums are still here. Until we see evidence to the contrary, expect vol to stay low and rotational churn underneath the surface. I’d prefer a market drop to bring in higher option premiums, but I’m going with what we’ve got.
Key support is at 2450, if we lose that then next pivot level is 2400.
Key resistance is the 2500 magnet level. Don’t be surprised if we break above that level, only to see a failed breakout.
Trade #1: WYNN
After a drop on earnings, WYNN is flirting with key support from the past few months. I’m looking for support to break and a second leg lower. Into the low 120’s is the next key support level which I expect to hold.
Expected Price: 122
Sell to Open WYNN Sep 110/105 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.60, Close at 0.10
Tier 2: Enter at 0.90, Close at 0.60
Tier 3: Enter at 1.20, Close at 0.90
Trade #2: MSFT
Expecting a pull into the 50 day moving average (green) along with a retest of previous pivot levels.
Expected Price: 71
Sell to Open MSFT Sep 67.50/65 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.40, Close at 0.10
Tier 2: Enter at 0.55, Close at 0.40
Tier 3: Enter at 0.70, Close at 0.55
Trade #3: V
Looking for a retest of previous support and the rising 50 day moving average.
Expected Price: 96.19
Sell to Open V Sep 92.50/90 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.35, Close at 0.15
Tier 2: Enter at 0.50, Close at 0.35
Tier 3: Enter at 0.65, Close at 0.50