Markets hitting all time highs again. VIX near historic lows.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Meanwhile, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia just got completely turned on its head and the Federal Reserve Board is getting fresh blood. Uncertainty is there, but it’s not being seen in the broad markets.
This is partly because of good stock return dispersion. It’s not all peachy under the surface. While large stocks like AAPL and AMZN look great, the retail sector is bloody and TV/Telecom has seen better days. If you’re rooting for a bear market, it’s there, just not in everything.
Gameplan is the same, buy dips on good trending stocks until the trend changes and we can shift back to two-way trade setups.
Trade #1: FDX
This is a trade we looked at in October, but we never got to our key price. The stock is now down to the 50 day moving average and key trendline support.
Expected Price: 221
Sell to Open FDX Jan 210/200 Put Spread (10 wide)
Tier 1: Enter at 1.70, Exit at 0.30
Tier 2: Enter at 2.30, Exit at 1.30
Tier 3: Enter at 2.90, Exit at 1.90
Trade #2: RUT
Smallcaps have done NOTHING for two months now. It’s the tightest voilatility we’ve seen in a very long time, and it’s been a super choppy mess.
Because the overall trend is up, we should expect resolution to the upside… but I think this market is setting up for a rug-pull. The bid will drop out to trigger a bunch of stops, then the institutional players will sweep up the mess and drive the market back higher.
I want to buy those stops. Look for a swift move to 1470 to sell some spreads into.
Expected Price: 1470
Sell to Open RUT 29Dec (Quarterlies) 1400/1390 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 1.30, Exit at 0.20
Tier 2: Enter at 1.90, Exit at 0.90
Tier 3: Enter at 2.50, Exit at 1.50