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Full Time Profits, August 10th, 2018 – BIDU, NKE, UNP

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Markets are a little soft on the back of the Turkish Lira crashing.

I swear to you, it was only two days ago when I showed my wife the chart of USDTRY and said “we should go back to Turkey.”

And then we had a 10% move today. Yeah, I’m looking at tickets now.

Whenever you see this kind of move in an emerging market currency, or anything that’s outside of what we “normally” view as a market risk, we always think about contaigion.

Will it spill over and find a way to make AMZN actually sell off?

Remember, the 1997 crash was all about Malaysian debt that just spilled over into a ton of other places.

I don’t think there’s enough evidence for that yet. Markets are still pretty firm and there’s plenty of dip buyers.

My guess… and this is what I think would frustrate the most market participatnts…

Indexes trade in a stupid tight range into Labor Day. Earnings are out of the way, it’s August, and while we will hope for some churn to get into some plays, it’s just going to get quiet.

Heck even POTUS is on vacation. Hard to get new trade war headlines out there.

Right now, we’ll look at a deep oversold play in BIDU and two other pullback trades.

Trade #1: BIDU

I almost sent this out a week ago, but then I thought “Nah, there’s no way BIDU will actually trade into the April lows.”

Yet here we are. The hard selloff post earnings into the multi-year range lows. Premium is still elevated, and I like it at this price level.

Trade Setup

Expected Price: 219.46

Sell to Open BIDU Sep 200/195 Put Spread

Tier 1: Enter at 0.77, Exit at 0.27

Tier 2: Enter at 1.07, Exit at 0.57

Tier 3: Enter at 1.37, Exit at 0.87

Trade #2: UNP

Looking for a pullback into the 20 day moving average.

Trade Setup

Expected Price: 146

Sell to Open UNP Sep 140/135 Put Spread

Tier 1: Enter at 0.74, Exit at 0.24

Tier 2: Enter at 1.04, Exit at 0.54

Tier 3: Enter at 1.34, Exit at 0.84

Trade #3: NKE

Looking for a pullback to breakout pattern.

Trade Setup

Expected Price: 78.55

Sell to Open NKE Sep 75/72.50 Put Spread

Tier 1: Enter at 0.40, Exit at 0.15

Tier 2: Enter at 0.55, Exit at 0.30

Tier 3: Enter at 0.70, Exit at 0.45

Disclaimer

U.S. GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER – COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION. FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING HAS LARGE POTENTIAL REWARDS, BUT ALSO LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST IN THE FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS. DON’T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE. THIS WEBSITE IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO BUY/SELL FUTURES OR OPTIONS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED ON THIS WEBSITE. THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY, SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN