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Full Time Profits, July 29th 2019 – AMZN, PYPL, ADBE

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The grind continues as the market is withing spitting distance of all time highs. We’ve got the Fed voodoo up on deck this week, and we’re almost out of earnings season. I think that the next “risks” the market will attach to are two-fold.

First, the dollar is at highs. Normally when the Fed is accomidative, it leads to dollar weakness, but because everything else sucks (technical term) globally, then we’re seeing a non-confirmation in that relationship, which is a signal in and of itself.

The second thing that will be an issue is tied to the dollar strength. If crude stays weak, then it will signal how global growth is so bad that no matter what the Fed does it won’t help. Whether or not that is true doesn’t matter… it’s what the narrative will be.

Underneath the surface is some decent rotation out of tech, so I want to use that opportunity to play dips in large cap tech names.

Trade #1: AMZN

This is the second continuation lower after earnings for AMZN. It’s testing the rising 50 day moving average and is back into the range after the hard bounce a month or so ago. I like playing it here.

Trade Setup

Expected Price: 1906

Sell to Open AMZN Sep 1745/1740 Put Spread

Tier 1: Enter at 0.70, Exit at 0.20

Tier 2: Enter at 1.00, Exit at 0.50

Tier 3: Enter at 1.30, Exit at 0.80

Trade #2: PYPL

Similar to AMZN, we’re seeing a continuation lower after earnings. PYPL is still one of the strongest stocks in the market. I’m looking for a gap fill to enter some put spread sales.

Trade Setup

Expected Price: 108.73

Sell to Open PYPL Sep 100/95 Put Spread

Tier 1: Enter at 0.70, Exit at 0.20

Tier 2: Enter at 1.00, Exit at 0.50

Tier 3: Enter at 1.30, Exit at 0.80

Trade #3: ADBE

ADBE is finding sellers with smoe decent volatility. We’ve got a gap fill, a rising 50 day moving average, and a restest of the previous range if down at 290, which is where I want to play it.

Trade Setup

Expected Price: 294.65

Sell to Open ADBE Sep 265/260 Put Spread

Tier 1: Enter at 0.75, Exit at 0.25

Tier 2: Enter at 1.05, Exit at 0.55

Tier 3: Enter at 1.35, Exit at 0.85

 

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