Not much has changed about the overall market structure. Unless we see proper price violations, we should consider the trend to be up.
There are some “hot spots” in the market right now– semiconductors and commodity stocks come to mind– so we may simply see a rotational correction. There is some risk right now as the PFE news came out about vacc*ne supply delays, yet if that doesn’t cascade over the next few trading days it should be fine.
(Yes, I am censoring the word, just so I make sure this email lands in your inbox properly.)
Overall, try not to overthink this market. My bet is that corrections will be limited to pockets of the market, and volatility will continue to head lower as we come into holiday trading.
Trade #1: XLNX
Very clean move over the past week, look for rotation lower as some other semiconductor companies take the lead. First dip in this stock should be a quality one.
Expected Price: 136.59
Sell to Open XLNX 15Jan21 120/115 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.94, Exit at 0.24
Tier 2: Enter at 1.316, Exit at 0.57
Tier 3: Enter at 1.692, Exit at 0.76
Stop Out If Close Under 119.89
Trade #2: SPG
If commercial real estate gets another whiff of good news, SPG will jam higher and (finally) fill the gap from March. Once it does, I want to fade it.
Expected Price: 100
Sell to Open SPG 15Jan21 110/115 Call Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 1, Exit at 0.32
Tier 2: Enter at 1.4, Exit at 0.68
Tier 3: Enter at 1.8, Exit at 0.9
Stop Out If Close Over 110.11
Trade #3: SHOP
Got a lot of eyes on this one, looking to chase a breakout. My guess is we need one more washout before the big move comes, and I want to be prepared to play the dip into key levels.
Expected Price: 1020.42
Sell to Open SHOP 18Dec20 975/970 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 1.35, Exit at 0.72
Tier 2: Enter at 1.89, Exit at 1.26
Tier 3: Enter at 2.43, Exit at 1.71
Stop Out If Close Under 974.89