The S&P continues to flirt with all time highs, and overall structure still looks as though we will break above it sooner than later.
4130 still the level I’m watching, the longer we hold above it, the higher the odds of a breakout.
We did see some weakness in tech today. TSLA is getting hit on a Chinese delivery report, and the Nasdaq 100 (finally) saw a move outside of its trading range.
I would be OK with some more selling. In fact, I would enjoy it… it’s just that, as it stands, this feels like a summer shakeout before we start heating up into earnings season.
There’s some other macro data with the Fed that could become an issue. They’re going to start unwinding some corporate bond purchases, and if the market wants to throw a tantrum that’s her perogative.
It’s taken me about an hour to write a few lines as I jump back and forth between this and AMC prices, so we’ll just leave the analysis here for now.
Trade #1: NVDA
NVDA is running hot on the back of good earnings numbers, a stock split, and nice relative strength in the sector. It’s almost to a point where I want to fade it. I’m OK with missing the absolute top, because I’ve been an early short on NVDA before and it’s not fun. We are looking for one more push to the upside to start a position.
Expected Price: 715
Sell to Open NVDA 25Jun21 750/760 Call Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 2, Exit at 0.64
Tier 2: Enter at 2.8, Exit at 1.36
Tier 3: Enter at 3.6, Exit at 1.8
Stop Out If Close Over 750.11
Trade #2: SPG
Very clean breakout here. I want to see a test of the previous breakout level for a continuation trade.
Expected Price: 126.66
Sell to Open SPG 16Jul21 120/115 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.95, Exit at 0.26
Tier 2: Enter at 1.33, Exit at 0.59
Tier 3: Enter at 1.71, Exit at 0.78
Stop Out If Close Under 119.89
Trade #3: UPS
After a strong move after earnings, the stock has consolidated above 210. This has the look of a rug pull… clear out the stops sub 210 and then reverse higher after deeper pockets come in. That’s what we are playing for here.
Expected Price: 208.5
Sell to Open UPS 16Jul21 195/190 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.78, Exit at 0.06
Tier 2: Enter at 1.092, Exit at 0.3
Tier 3: Enter at 1.404, Exit at 0.39
Stop Out If Close Under 194.89