This second push higher feels a little forced. Sure, the big move early in the week was driven by pre-earnings rallies in large cap tech.
But the rest of the week? The S&P traded in about a 15 point range, and we’re seeing a second push right here.
It’s not the rally feels unnatural, just forced. There were probably some participants that were caught offsides on the tech rally and are forced to adjust their books to compensate for the short deltas they picked up– this is the same mechanic we’ve seen before.
Can we continue higher? Sure, but the odds of that happening *without* a rotation are low. We are approaching the 10th day in a row where the S&P hasn’t touched the previous day’s low, and that’s something that has occurred about 3 other times in the past decade.
With that kind of backdrop, it’s not unreasonable to expect a giveback, or at least some rotation.
Today we are going to look at some setups that are very anticipatory- we will need to see a good pullback for entries in these, but if they do get hit they will have very nice odds.
Now is not the time to force your way into the market. Be patient, let the trades come to you and you’ll be rewarded.
Trade #1: SMH
A ton of strength hit the semiconductor sector on Monday, and this has the look of trend continuation. We are anticipating a little stop-loss run underneath the week’s lows for a good entry.
If SMH just rips higher without us, then we will look for another pullback to play it long.
Trade Setup
Expected Price: 250.49
Sell to Open SMH 21May21 230/225 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.75, Exit at 0.02
Tier 2: Enter at 1.05, Exit at 0.26
Tier 3: Enter at 1.35, Exit at 0.32
Trade #2: WMT
We’ve got two setups on WMT today– a long and a short, simply depending on where the stock heads next.
To the upside we have the lower end of the trading range that the stock was in for a few months, and to the downside we have the potential for a higher high getting setup.
I don’t know which way it’s headed, but the odds of more rangebound action after the move it just had is reasonable.
Trade Setup (Short)
Expected Price: 142.25
Sell to Open WMT 21May21 150/155 Call Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.75, Exit at 0.02
Tier 2: Enter at 1.05, Exit at 0.26
Tier 3: Enter at 1.35, Exit at 0.32
Trade Setup (Long)
Expected Price: 135
Sell to Open WMT 21May21 130/125 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 1.08, Exit at 0.41
Tier 2: Enter at 1.51, Exit at 0.81
Tier 3: Enter at 1.94, Exit at 1.08
Trade #3: XLE
This setup is a “wishful thinking” trade. We will need to see a strong selloff in the next week in crude and major oil companies to get filled.
I am looking for a retest of the previous resistance level, with a potential measured move terminating just above 43.
Trade Setup
Expected Price: 45.3
Sell to Open XLE 21May21 43/40 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.51, Exit at 0.08
Tier 2: Enter at 0.71, Exit at 0.25
Tier 3: Enter at 0.91, Exit at 0.32