{"id":11922,"date":"2018-12-17T21:15:40","date_gmt":"2018-12-18T01:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/?p=11922"},"modified":"2018-12-17T21:15:40","modified_gmt":"2018-12-18T01:15:40","slug":"proactive-spreads-december-17th-2018-tsla-msft-spx","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/proactive-spreads-december-17th-2018-tsla-msft-spx\/","title":{"rendered":"Full Time Profits, December 17th, 2018 – TSLA, MSFT, SPX"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

2600 was taken out and sellers came out fairly aggressively. The market tagged the Feb lows during the afternoon session, and while there was a bit of a pop to end the day, we hit a new closing low for the year.<\/p>\n

This is the first time since October where it felt like a washout. There were a few indicators I’ve monitored over the past few months that never exhibited any kind of capitulation and now we are seeing it. A good example is the percentage of stocks above the 200 day moving average– it’s now at 25% for the S&P, a level not seen since 2016. We’re also seeing some sentiment indicators hit extremes.<\/p>\n

That doesn’t mean it’s an all-clear to buy the bottom. This looks like a bear market.<\/p>\n

Yet with credit spreads, you can safely fade down moves… only if there is enough capitulation to justify it. We’re finally seeing some evidence of it.<\/p>\n

Trade #1: TSLA<\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tesla is one of maybe 5 holdouts in this market. It has continued to zig while the rest of the market zags. A good reasoning behind this– it’s a crowded short, and an easy short, and if you’re a fund getting blown out on your long stocks, you raise cash by closing out your TSLA short.<\/p>\n

If it pulls to recent pivot levels, it will also come into the rising 50 day moving average, which is where I want to be involved.<\/p>\n

Trade Setup<\/strong><\/p>\n

Expected Price: 325<\/p>\n

Sell to open TSLA Feb 245\/240 Put Spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tier 1: Enter at .85, Exit at 0.35<\/p>\n

Tier 2: Enter at 1.15, Exit at 0.65<\/p>\n

Tier 3: Enter at 1.45, Exit at 0.95<\/p>\n

Trade #2: MSFT<\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Looking for a flush sub 100 in MSFT.<\/p>\n

Trade Setup<\/strong><\/p>\n

Expected Price: 97<\/p>\n

Sell to Open MSFT Feb 85\/80 Put Spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tier 1: Enter at 0.70, Exit at 0.20<\/p>\n

Tier 2: Enter at 1.00, Exit at 0.50<\/p>\n

Tier 3: Enter at 1.30, Exit at 0.80<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trade #3: SPX<\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

There are a million oversold reading to use to consider a long in the S&P 500… and they won’t matter until they matter. I know that’s hard to understand sometimes, but if there is no liquidity supply and continued aggressive selling, then it’s very difficult to pinpoint which washout is worth a play.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless… the S&P 500 is now 8% under its 20 week moving average. That’s pretty extreme, even going back to 2008\/2009. It makes sense to scale in to some long exposure here.<\/p>\n

Trade Setup<\/strong><\/p>\n

Expected Price: 2545<\/p>\n

Sell to Open SPX Feb 2370\/2365 Put Spread<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tier 1: Enter at 0.90, Exit at 0.40<\/p>\n

Tier 2: Enter at 1.20, Exit at 0.70<\/p>\n

Tier 3: Enter at 1.50, Exit at 1.00<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2600 was taken out and sellers came out fairly aggressively. The market tagged the Feb lows during the afternoon session, and while there was a bit of a pop to end the day, we hit a new closing low for the year. This is the first time since October where it felt like a washout. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11922"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11922"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11927,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11922\/revisions\/11927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}