{"id":13084,"date":"2019-09-03T12:36:18","date_gmt":"2019-09-03T16:36:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/?p=13084"},"modified":"2019-09-03T12:43:35","modified_gmt":"2019-09-03T16:43:35","slug":"proactive-spreads-september-3rd-2019-risk-management-on-dis-tlt-amzn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/proactive-spreads-september-3rd-2019-risk-management-on-dis-tlt-amzn\/","title":{"rendered":"Full Time Profits, September 3rd 2019 &#8211; Risk Management on DIS, TLT, AMZN, TXN"},"content":{"rendered":"<p id=\"skjUEgK\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1247\" height=\"500\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-13085 \" src=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9127d1a5e.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9127d1a5e.png 1247w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9127d1a5e-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9127d1a5e-768x308.png 768w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9127d1a5e-1024x411.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1247px) 100vw, 1247px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Markets are still stuck in this range, and it&#8217;s nearly been a month so it is reasonable to expect a break of this range soon.<\/p>\n<p>All of Full Time Profits alerts are in September opex, which is under a month away. Given the fact that a break will happen soon, I&#8217;m very concerned about trades where the short strike of the option spread is dangerously close to the underlying price of the stock.<\/p>\n<p>So that means&#8230; right now&#8230; I&#8217;m focused more on Risk.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of open trades, it depends on which ones you took, but here are (I think) all open trade setups in Full Time Profits.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>DIS Sep 135\/130 Put Spread &#8211; 3 Tiers<\/li>\n<li>ADBE Sep 265\/260 Put Spread &#8211; 2 Tiers<\/li>\n<li>SPX Sep 2815\/2810 Put Spread &#8211; 2 Tiers<\/li>\n<li>TXN Sep 120\/115 Put Spread &#8211; 1 Tier<\/li>\n<li>AMZN Sep 1745\/1740 Put Spread &#8211; 3 Tiers<\/li>\n<li>PYPL Sep 100\/95 Put Spread &#8211; 1 Tier<\/li>\n<li>MU Sep 36\/34 Put Spread &#8211; 1 Tier<\/li>\n<li>GS Sep 185\/180 Put Spread &#8211; 1 Tier<\/li>\n<li>TLT Sep 175\/147 Call Spread &#8211; 3 Tiers<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Many other setups have already rolled off the books because the market bounced and enough time decay had come along to hit our closing triggers.<\/p>\n<p>With that said&#8230; this is a pretty good amount of risk. If these names had October spreads I wouldn&#8217;t worry too much about it because they would be plenty out of the money.<\/p>\n<p>But Sep Opex is less than 3 weeks away, so the question is&#8230;\u00a0 is the juice worth the squeeze? Do I want to hold some of these for another two weeks and hope for a pop, or should I cut bait?<\/p>\n<p>Because if we see any kind of decent selling, then I&#8217;ll be in big trouble. This smells like this time last year where some trades went from uncomfortable to unmanageable.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;d rather manage my risk when I can, not when I have to.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the trades that I think are safe for now, given the distance from the underlying price: ADBE, SPX, PYPL, MU, GS<\/p>\n<p>All the others I have concerns with&#8230; so it&#8217;s either roll them out to October or kill them for a loss.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\">Adjustment #1: AMZN<\/h2>\n<p id=\"bpDpBnw\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1280\" height=\"497\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13086 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e93072eb01.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e93072eb01.png 1280w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e93072eb01-300x116.png 300w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e93072eb01-768x298.png 768w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e93072eb01-1024x398.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Current Setup:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sep 1745\/1740 Put Spread @1.00 Average<\/p>\n<p>Current Price: 1.27<\/p>\n<p><strong>Risk Management Plan:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>AMZN is 50 points away from our short stirke, but that&#8217;s not a lot when you consider the volatility. 1745 was tested 4 times last week and if it tests it again it will probably break.<\/p>\n<p>My plan is to kill the trade and take a small loss.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Buy to Close AMZN Sep 1745\/1740 Put Spread @1.27<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\">Adjustment #2: DIS<\/h2>\n<p id=\"jxeoRCm\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1265\" height=\"485\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13087 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9399c6cf7.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9399c6cf7.png 1265w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9399c6cf7-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9399c6cf7-768x294.png 768w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e9399c6cf7-1024x393.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1265px) 100vw, 1265px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Current Setup:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sep 135\/130 Put Spread @1.08 Average<\/p>\n<p>Current Price: 1.42<\/p>\n<p><strong>Risk Management Plan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Similar kind of setup as AMZN. We&#8217;re dangerously close to going &#8220;in the money&#8221; on the spread and then it becomes very expensive to adjust the trade.<\/p>\n<p>If I wanted to roll, I would look at rolling down and out to the October 130\/125 Put Spread for 1.00. Problem with that is it introduces another full month of risk into the trade. I&#8217;d rather kill it here and scale back in to put spreads if DIS manages to take out 130 and test the rising 200 day moving average.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Buy to Close DIS Sep 135\/130 Put Spread @1.42<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\">Adjustment #3: TXN<\/h2>\n<p id=\"ayAgNAC\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1266\" height=\"496\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13088 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e949c9a3a4.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e949c9a3a4.png 1266w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e949c9a3a4-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e949c9a3a4-768x301.png 768w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e949c9a3a4-1024x401.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1266px) 100vw, 1266px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Current Setup: <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sep 120\/115 Put Spread @0.90 (Tier 1 And 2 Already Closed)<\/p>\n<p>Current Price: 1.37<\/p>\n<p><strong>Risk Management Plan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ve already got wiggle room in the trade as there&#8217;s only Tier 1 left on the trade. I plan on rolling the first tier and then adding back to the trade on any dips.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Buy to Close TXN Sep 120\/115 Put Spread @1.37<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Sell to Open TXN Oct 110\/105 Put Spread @0.60, Close at 0.05<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Re-Enter Tier 2 At 0.90, Exit at 0.40<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Re-Enter Tier 3 At 1.30, Exit at 0.70<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\">Adjustment #4: TLT<\/h2>\n<p id=\"wNyElFe\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1253\" height=\"499\" class=\"size-full wp-image-13089 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e957cbca07.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e957cbca07.png 1253w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e957cbca07-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e957cbca07-768x306.png 768w, https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/img_5d6e957cbca07-1024x408.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1253px) 100vw, 1253px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Current Setup: <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sep 145\/147 Call Spread @0.50 Average<\/p>\n<p>Current Price: 1.29<\/p>\n<p><strong>Risk Management Plan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This is the trade giving me the most trouble. The stock market has been tame compared to the vol that has persisted in the bond market.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m going to kill the trade and immediately start scaling into an October short. I won&#8217;t treat this as a roll&#8230; rather they will be two separate trades.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Buy to Close TLT Sep 145\/147 Call Spread @1.29<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Sell to Open TLT Oct 153\/155 Call Spread<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Tier 1: Enter at 0.40, Exit at 0.10<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Tier 2: Enter at 0.60, Exit at 0.20<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Tier 3: Enter at 0.80, Exit at 0.30<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are still stuck in this range, and it&#8217;s nearly been a month so it is reasonable to expect a break of this range soon. All of Full Time Profits alerts are in September opex, which is under a month away. Given the fact that a break will happen soon, I&#8217;m very concerned about trades [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13084"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13084"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13084\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13093,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13084\/revisions\/13093"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/trades.iwopremium.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}