Home › Forums › Market Discussion › Market Talk 2/28 – 3/5
- This topic has 24 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 2 months ago by Dina Lazos.
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March 3, 2016 at 4:32 pm #4799Dina LazosParticipant
hey hey dina here! this forum will be a good thing! so, will u steve open a new thread or whatever every morning or will we add to the conversation from the day before?
March 4, 2016 at 10:33 am #4802Steven PlaceKeymasterDina, it will be 1x week thing. New threads open on Sundays.
March 4, 2016 at 10:34 am #4803Steven PlaceKeymasterI’m initating a high risk short in PBR. This is a parabolic short + gap up + resistance setup.
I’m buying the March 5.5 puts @0.56, will 2x size at 0.40.
Full Risk
March 4, 2016 at 10:39 am #4807Steven PlaceKeymasterNew Trade Setup in TSLA:
March 4, 2016 at 10:51 am #4808SureshParticipantWhat does BO stand for in PB2BO?
March 4, 2016 at 11:34 am #4809Steven PlaceKeymasterSuresh it stands for “Breakout.”
So in TSLA’s case it’s pulling back to it’s breakout… or rather breakdown level at 203/share.
March 4, 2016 at 12:17 pm #4811Steven PlaceKeymasterSDRL is another oil name that’s going parabolic…
I’m short biased here but this is tougher to trade. The options board not as liquid as it’s a lower priced name… I may just place some bids on the Mar 4 puts and maybe I’ll get filled into the close.
It’s very possible the commodity complex squeezes into end of day… it *is* Friday and if you’re short you may not want to be putting on swings into the weekend because you never know if that company you’re betting against gets taken out. For example there are some rumors about NE being bought out and that’s getting the stock to ramp up 13%.
So two ways to daytrade this. If we get a lunchtime chop look for the break of the midday range below and press short there.
If not, it’s probably best to wait to next week to see if you can get some better short entries.
March 4, 2016 at 12:25 pm #4812Steven PlaceKeymasterMarket is currently up 4 days in a row, odds of 5 in a row are pretty low. I’m expecting an *exhale* into next week.
Yesterday’s low was 198 on the SPY so I’m going to buy next week’s (Mar2 Expiration) 198 puts for .70.
Full risk trade, will sell half into 1.10.
March 4, 2016 at 12:49 pm #4816Steven PlaceKeymasterReally interesting headline here…
Blackrock is suspending share issuance for IAG, a gold etf… citing too much demand.
First, this feels like a little contrarian headline for gold.
But what’s more important here is that there may end up being a nice arb in gold etfs.
Back in the day, there was a volatility etf that halted share issuance… TVIX.
It was a triple leveraged long vol fund.
Once they stopped issuing new shares, it skyrocketed higher.
Another ETF, UVXY, had the same parameters. Normally they would have a correlation near 1.
What ended up happening was something like a 15-sigma divergence. It eventually got knocked back down.
The only other instance I can think of is how PSLV traded at a premium to SLV. Because PSLV had actual physical silver… or that’s what the story was. It turned out to be BS and it got knocked back in line.
What you’re going to want to watch for is a divergence between GLD and IAU. If it does see a big move, then I’ll get short IAU and long GLD
March 4, 2016 at 7:37 pm #4821Dina LazosParticipanttest 1212
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