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Home › Forums › Swing Trades › Retest Bet in SPY
After a momentum low was put in at 198, the market has bounced. On Tuesday, it gapped and ran, and this morning we’re seeing a second gap higher.
A two-gap-in-a-row fade in the market seems to be a pretty good bet.
On top of that, we had a volatility pivot to the downside.
What *tends* to happen is that a retest of the low comes in. At least, an attempt on the retest.
So here’s the trade… I’m not entirely sure on that price as I’m writing it out premarket, but 1.50 looks like a good bet.
Full risk trade, out half on a double.
Steven, You were fading (shorting) TLT yesterday and now SPY. Arent those opposite to one another. Can you please explain the rationale. Thanks.
Pricing is 1.15 not 1.50 on the open.
Suresh, yes I’m aware that short TLT and short SPY kind of play against the same thing.
It comes down to timeframe and risk structure.
With the TLT call spreads, I’m probably early and I’ll be in the trade for a while.
With the SPY puts, it’s a shorter term trade and I’ll take profits faster.
I’m not really trading these against each other, but I am aware that there’s some nuance here in my approach.