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A long term not-so-symmetrical triangle breakout is what has happened in CTXS, and it is currently creating a flag (consolidation) from those levels. Check out a weekly chart:
And here is the daily chart showing the flag pattern:
The pattern on the daily chart isn’t too clean, but I think an entry hhere with a stop under last Friday’s lows of about 70 dollars should do it.
I like buying the Dec 75 Call for 3.40 or lower. Not much theta risk right now, and since it is bullish vega you will benefit from any rise in implied volatility into earnings.
With a stop under 70 that puts your risk at about 1.00 per contract, and initial target is 75 which is a reward of about 1.20 per contract. A good management technique would be to sell 1/2 your position on a rally to 75 and then let the rest of the calls ride for (hopefully) a longer term trend.
The weekly breakout worked, and the december call is now up over 2.00 on the original basis.
I still like the trade here, but the odds that 80 will be touched soon is very low. So we will sell the Oct 80 call against the position, thereby reducing our risk and taking some cash off the table.
If we see a pullback to 75, or if time goes by and we stay under 80, we will close out the Oct 80 call and then sell november options against the trade when they are opened up.
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