Honestly a straight short could work here, and I was looking at long puts straight up…. but I think there’s a play because of the term structure.
First the trade:
Sell to Open Mar 8 Put
Buy to Open Apr 8 Put
Total Debit: 0.50 or lower
Here’s why this trade works:
1. March vol is 210% while April is 160%. The term structure is in the favor for calendar spreads
2. It’s looking for a pullback which is a high odds bet in PLUG
3. Only 11 days left to March opex, so a ton of theta is due.
This is a fixed risk trade (no stops), and we’re looking for >50% return on our risk.