The market finally saw a breakdown in the trend. That doesn’t mean the trend is over, just that the rate of change the market has experienced over the past 45 days has shifted.
And that’s fine. It’s normal to see pullbacks. We should welcome them. Of course there’s always the possibility of a 2017 event, where the pullbacks are so shallow that we get fewer opportunities– I sure hope that doesn’t happen!
I think the collective view of the market is that we will retest the previous resistance levels back around 3015. I think that’s too ambitious– the market pullback will be much more shallow than that because there is so much cash on the sidelines, and there are plenty of investors/traders that are hedged up. I think 3066 would be a more reasonable spot to find buyers into a selloff.
Trade #1: MSFT
Looking for a pullback to the most recent pivot support post-breakout.
Expected Price: 146.30
Sell to Open MSFT Jan 140/135 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.90, Exit at 0.30
Tier 2: Enter at 1.20, Exit at 0.40
Tier 3: Enter at 1.50, Exit at 0.50
Trade #2: VLO
Looking for a test of the rising 50 day moving average.
Expected Price: 91.75
Sell to Open VLO Jan 85/80 Bull Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.85, Exit at 0.35
Tier 2: Enter at 1.15, Exit at 0.45
Tier 3: Enter at 1.45, Exit at 0.55
Trade #3: UPS
So far, looks like a failed breakout. I want to see a push to the lower end of the range.
Expected Price: 111.60
Sell to Open UPS Jan 105/100 Bull Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.80, Exit at 0.30
Tier 2: Enter at 1.10, Exit at 0.40
Tier 3: Enter at 1.40, Exit at 0.50