Archives for July 2018
[CLOSED] – Income Calendar in UAL
Update: August 9th, 2018
Rolling the Aug 80 to Sep 80 and adding the Sep/Dec 82.50 Calendar
Update: August 22nd, 2018
Adding the third and final calendar.
Update: September 5th, 2018
Rolling the 80 calendar to 87.50 calendar.
Update: September 12th, 2018
Closing out the trade.
Basis and P/L Calculations
Trade #1
Buy to Open UAL Aug/Dec 80 Put Calendar @3.10
Margin: 3100
Trade #2
Roll Aug 80 Put to Sep 80 Put
Credit: 1.05
New Basis of Sep/Dec 80 Put Calendar: 2.05
Margin: 2050
Trade #3
Buy to Open UAL Sep/Dec 82.50 Put Calendar @2.35
Margin: 4400
Trade #4
Buy to Open UAL Sep/Dec 85 Put Calendar @2.55
Margin: 6950
Trade #5
Sell to Close Sep/Dec 80 Put Calendar @1.63
Realized Loss: -420
Margin: 5320
Trade #6
Buy To Open Sep/Dec 87.50 Put Calendar @2.87
Margin: 8190
Closing Trades
Sell to Close UAL Sep/Dec 87.50 Put Calendar @3.34
Realized Profits: 470
Sell to Close UAL Sep/Dec 85 Put Calendar @3.01
Realized Profits: 460
Sell to Close UAL Sep/Dec 82.50 Put Calendar @2.45
Realized Profits: 100
Total P/L: 610
Return on Capital: 7.4%
Full Time Profits, July 19th, 2018 – CSX, UAL
It’s pretty slow out there. We’re seeing rotation back into financials and industrials, and next week is basically a huge earnings bonanza.
That’s right, I said bonanza.
I still think that the market is going to grind up into 2850. The Nasdaq has already hit new highs, and smallcaps are within spitting distance.
The simplest trade here is to look for the big earnings breakouts and play the first pullback. It may just end up being that simple, and it’s the main strategy I’ll be pursuing over the next few weeks.
Trade #1: CSX
CSX beat on earnings, good revenue growth and had a breakout to new highs. I expect the earnings low to hold here.
Trade Setup
Expected Price: 68.24
Sell to Open CSX Aug 65/62.50 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.30, Exit at 0.05
Tier 2: Enter at 0.50, Exit at 0.20
No Tier 3, Potentially roll to September.
Trade #2: UAL
Same premise here. Strong move, look for a pullback. It may take a couple days or maybe a week for it to happen.
Trade Setup
Expected Price: 80
Sell to Open UAL Sep 72.50/70 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.35, Exit at 0.10
Tier 2: Enter at 0.50, Exit at 0.25
Tier 3: Enter at 0.65, Exit at 0.40
NVDA Video Stock Analysis
Full Time Profits, July 16th, 2018 – LULU, IBB, ADBE, RUT
The S&P has managed to hit and hold 2800. This is not bearish action. I expect a move to 2850… it probably won’t happen overnight, and we’ll probably see some reversion before it happens.
Current price action is not supportive of the more popular bearish narratives. Large cap financials have caught a bid, emerging markets aren’t falling apart, treasury yields are back at levels from January… it’s all fairly healthy.
Sure there’s some weakness in large cap tech. NFLX earnings out and the stock is down 50 points. Probably needed it.
In fact, there are many, many stocks on my watchlist that have earnings up on deck so they are “no plays” until after earnings. There will be some great opportunities in those names over the next few weeks.
For now, we’ll focus on names with earnings already out as well as some index plays.
Trade #1: LULU
Obvious compression breakout above 130. I think you can get away with getting long here, but what I think is a cleaner setup is to wait for the “rug pull.”
The first move under the June range will most likely be bought up, so that’s where the best risk/reward is.
Trade Setup
Expected Price: 122
Sell to Open LULU Sep 105/100 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.70, Exit at 0.20
Tier 2: Enter at 1.00, Exit at 0.50
Tier 3: Enter at 1.30, Exit at 0.80
Trade #2: IBB
Stellar move in biotech. A lot of large cap names like BIIB, GILD, and AMGN have broken out of more constructive bases.
I want to see a gap fill from a few days ago to initialize a position.
Trade Setup
Expected Price: 116
Sell to Open IBB Sep 110/105 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.70, Exit at 0.20
Tier 2: Enter at 1.00, Exit at 0.50
Tier 3: Enter at 1.30, Exit at 0.80
Trade #3: ADBE
We’ve already pulled out some nice profits out of this name from the dip in June. I want to get involved again, but only if the major support is tested. A bigger selloff in tech would do that.
Trade Setup
Expected Price: 235
Sell to Open ADBE Sep 210/205 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.70, Exit at 0.20
Tier 2: Enter at 1.00, Exit at 0.50
Tier 3: Enter at 1.30, Exit at 0.80
Trade #4: RUT
Just in case the market gets a little more loose, I want to be prepared. Looking at the most recent support level as a fresh entry.
Trade Setup
Expected Price: 1636
Sell to Open RUT Sep 1540/1535 Put Spread
Tier 1: Enter at 0.75, Exit at 0.25
Tier 2: Enter at 1.05, Exit at 0.55
Tier 3: Enter at 1.35, Exit at 0.85