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One key relationship here is to watch the performance of materials relative to tech.
We can use the SPDR sectors for that kind of analysis… XLB for the materials sector and XLK for tech.
The underperformance of materials relative to tech has been secular in nature. I remember back in 2007 that you could play oil, ag, and commodity stocks for great runs but we just haven’t seen that as of late.
That last push lower may have signalled capitulation in this relationship. We’re seeing some pretty strong runs in oil and commodity stocks over the past few weeks.
I’m not sure these companies are done sucking from a fundamental perspective, just that they can become better trading instruments than what they have been over the past few years.
BTW, IAU can issue shares again after filing with SEC:
Taking a shot at a first post on Forum. Seems like we have a little rotation into biotech from big tech today.
I’m looking to have a more well developed “profile” page for users but I need to make sure privacy settings can be included in the settings.
Checked gravatar.com I just want to upload a photo that can be used with IWO Forum, not create an avatar that travels with me to other social sites. Perhaps that is what you are working on now with a Profile page?
Yes. There is the ability to make this more of a “social” network but there’s some privacy issues.
With gravatar, your picture will only show up on places where you have that email registered and post. So it will only travel with you if you use the same account to post on other forums.
One little bit of event risk that could present itself into March opex is the Fed decision.
The Fed meeting date is on Wednesday March 16.
Now there tends to be a lot of noise surrounding the Fed and whether they will raise or not.
But we have a market to show us the implied odds:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Currently we’re seeing the probability of a rate hike around 2%. So odds are we won’t see any movement from the Fed.
Now that doesn’t mean we won’t see people start to get scared. In about a week you’ll start seeing headlines of “will they/won’t they” that will pop up in financial media. It may not be a good reason to sell stocks, but some investors just may need *a* reason to sell stocks.
There are 2 other central planners due out before Yellen & Co will make the decision on rates going forward.
1. ECB on 3/10: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?day=mar10.2016
2. BOJ on 3/14: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?day=mar14.2016
Russell 2000 index currently 7.5% above it’s 20 day moving average. Largest since 2011. We’re running really hot right now.
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