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Steven PlaceKeymaster
The Oct 6 calls are now running for 1.00, which is a full double.
The measured move for YGE is 6.75 and we’ve already surpassed that.
You need to take some profits now and roll up your stop to 5.98. If we do get a pullback, the theta risk can really come back to get you, so do be careful with that. You could also consider selling the Oct 7 Call against your position but that would really limit your upside.
Steven PlaceKeymasterAfter seeing a great breakout and 2nd day followthrough, the stock is gapping down back to key pivot level at 78.50. If it looks to close under that level, then exit out of your trade.
Steven PlaceKeymasterV gapped down before entry, so I’m going to start not with the 195 calendar but the 190 calendar. Will adjust on a 5 point move in either direction.
Steven PlaceKeymasterI’m going to close the SPX October income trade at a small loss. The options have under 24 days left to expiration, and if the market sees any pop, we end up with a very large loss. The ability to roll or adjust is not good as the cost to roll is too high (due to being closer to opex), and there are no capital efficient adjustments to reduce the upside risk we have.
Here is the risk profile currently:
Looking back on this trade, it may have been a case of choosing the wrong adjustment. Rolling the call spread down to lower strikes is what is really hurting this trade, so I’m removing that adjustment strategy from my playbook.
If we didn’t adjust, here’s what the trade would look like right now:
To close the trade out, start with the bear call spreads, specifically buying back the 1790/1800. Then sell to close the extra bull call spread for a small profit. From there you’ve got a calendar and bull put spread left, so close those when you can, but the main risk is in those bear call spreads.
Steven PlaceKeymasterAfter catching some downside heat as the stock pulled back to 450, we are seeing a strong gap higher, putting us right back to the middle of the iron condor.
We have realized over 2/3 of the iron condors max potential, and there’s still a month to go. Now would be a good time to exit here, then consider just fading the ranges by selling November spreads.
Steven PlaceKeymasterThe stock had a nice breakout and ran to the 103 highs, but found aggressive sellers right after that. It then broke under 99, lost 96 and cleared under major support at 94.
If you had partialed out of the position at 103 then it was a fine trade, but as the 94-95 area was breached, you should be completely out of this trade.
Steven PlaceKeymasterThe absolute worst thing happened in this trade, where there was no pullback or consolidation– it just ran our stop with no theta gains whatsoever.
If AMZN closes above 320, then exit out of the trade.
Steven PlaceKeymasterThe weekly breakout worked, and the december call is now up over 2.00 on the original basis.
I still like the trade here, but the odds that 80 will be touched soon is very low. So we will sell the Oct 80 call against the position, thereby reducing our risk and taking some cash off the table.
If we see a pullback to 75, or if time goes by and we stay under 80, we will close out the Oct 80 call and then sell november options against the trade when they are opened up.
Steven PlaceKeymasterCRM has seen a very impressive run post-breakout. There is currently a lower high devloping, so I would look to raise stops from 49.80 up to 52.90– I like that stop because it’s under the “obvious” level and under a whole number, so you don’t get shook out due to stop runs.
The Oct 50 call option is now up to 4.30, from an initial buy point of 1.65.
Steven PlaceKeymasterFLR caught a large gap higher on news of a new DOE contract. It’s now overbought, and our risk structure currently has us setup for diminishing returns if the stock keeps running.
Now is a great time to close out the trade and stalk for a new long on any retracements back to 70.
Steven PlaceKeymasterDue to the Fed rally, we got a big move up to 43, so we are going to add another 1/3 to our position:
Buy 7 Nov 46 put
Sell -14 Nov 43 Put
Buy 7 Nov 40 Put
Debit: 1.05What this effectively does is close out the high end of our put butterfly and rolls it to a put condor
A move up to 44.50 will trigger the 3rd addition to this trade.
Steven PlaceKeymasterAfter the no-taper rally, the RUT is now 20 points above our initial purchase point. Now is a good area to pick up our 2nd butterfly:
Buy 1 Nov 1000 Put
Sell -2 Nov 1050 Put
Buy 1 Nov 1100 Put
Debit: 11.00
Steven PlaceKeymasterAfter forming a second base, the stock has broken out, and the Oct 50 calls are now up .60 from our initial entry point.
The smart thing to do now is sell 1/2 position and then move the stop up to 49.80
Steven PlaceKeymasterGS had a pretty big rally and broke out above 165. That’s where the short gamma risk comes in.
You should be exiting at breakeven or a tiny profit.
Steven PlaceKeymasterTrade still isn’t there yet, waiting for a move above 158. That pattern has changed a bit to more of an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
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